The GOP has taken back control of the Senate, capturing a narrow majority in the upper chamber after flipping key seats in West Virginia and Ohio red.
Republicans are also expected to pick up Montana.
Republicans will have control of the Senate for the first time since early 2021, raising the stakes of a presidential contest that seems to be trending toward Donald Trump. Should he indeed prevail, the new Senate majority could help him enact his extreme legislative agenda, along with confirming nominees to key cabinet posts and judicial appointments, including, potentially, the Supreme Court. If Kamala Harris were to pull out a victory, a GOP-controlled Senate could help stall her agenda.
Democrats had been facing an uphill battle to keep their Senate majority, which they hold with 47 seats and four independents who caucus with them. They had more seats to defend this cycle than their counterparts, and in more challenging territory. Republican Jim Justice unsurprisingly took the West Virginia seat currently held by Joe Manchin, a rare Democrat who has won in a deep red state but opted not to run for reelection.
Meanwhile, Montana, where Trump won by double digits in 2016 and 2020, and Ohio, which Trump won decisively in the last two cycles, were particularly vulnerable, as Democrats Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown sought to fend off challenges from Trump-backed candidates. Trump-backed Bernie Moreno topped Brown, while Tim Sheehy is poised to beat Tester. Democrats had hoped to offset those liabilities by making inroads in red states; Colin Allred ran a particularly tough bid to unseat Ted Cruz in Texas. But the math was working against the Democrats.
The GOP victory further raises the stakes of the behind-the-scenes race to replace Mitch McConnell as Republican leader. The Kentucky senator, who has led Senate Republicans since 2007, helped create the polarized conditions that contributed to Trump’s rise, and was an architect of Trump’s transformation of the federal judiciary—and the Supreme Court—during his presidency. He also opted not to vote to impeach Trump after he incited an insurrection at the Capitol.
But the 82-year-old has feuded with Trump—even as he continues to enable him—and said in February, following a series of health scares, that he would not seek another term as the party’s Senate leader. The ensuing jockeying—which includes frontrunners John Thune and John Cornyn—will now determine not only who leads the Senate GOP, but who will set the agenda for the entire upper chamber as a new administration takes over.