In an uncertain world, we can at least depend on the Golden Globes 2021—airing Sunday night on NBC, hosted by Globes veterans Amy Poehler and Tina Fey. It’s difficult to anticipate how the ceremony itself will look, or how much of it will unfold from various virtual locations. We do know, though, that several major awards will be handed out…and given the tea leaves, here are the performers and productions that Vanity Fair’s awards experts think are most likely to come out on top. See our predictions below, and check back after the winners are revealed to see how well we did.
Best Motion Picture, Drama
The Father
Mank
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
While Nomadland may still be the best-picture front-runner for the Oscars, we think the HFPA’s collection of kooks and weirdos will favor the voluble sprawl of Aaron Sorkin’s latest, about a show trial meant to punish political dissent 50 years ago. The film has relevance today, features a cast of many bold-faced names, and has an easily digested liberal politics in a way that Promising Young Woman or Nomadland or even Mank do not. —Richard Lawson
Best Actor, Motion Picture, Drama
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
Gary Oldman and Tahar Rahim are probably in the honor-just-to-be-nominated contingent this year. That puts this race down to dark horse Riz Ahmed; the electric Chadwick Boseman, who would be awarded posthumously; and Anthony Hopkins, who gives a late-career performance that rivals some of his most notable work. Circumstances being what they are, we think Boseman will be honored by the Globes—and, in April, by the Academy. And not only because it will be the HFPA’s last chance to recognize Boseman’s work; he’s the magnetic, maddening heart of Ma Rainey, vibrating through its small rooms as a man in full. —RL
Best Actress, Motion Picture, Drama
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
This is a tricky one to call. Viola Davis and Frances McDormand are beloved, awards-bedecked actors who could easily do another victory lap this year. But they did both just get big prizes in recent years, which likely opens the door for Carey Mulligan—who is terrific in a film that seems at least accidentally responsive to the Time’s Up and #MeToo movements, which were prominent talking points at the Globes in 2018. Mulligan has been a reliably smart, classy actor in varied fare for over a decade now, meaning a lot of voters might think she’s due for a win. —RL
Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Hamilton
Music
Palm Springs
The Prom
WIth no box office to guide us toward a hit, and no real Oscar buzz for any of the movies on this list, the winner may truly come down to which film received the biggest publicity push from its distributor—or simply the one with the most name recognition. The edge, in that case, may well go to Hamilton. It’s won every other prize on earth, so why not this one? —Katey Rich
Best Actor, Motion Picture, Comedy
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
James Corden, The Prom
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
Though the logic that could make Hamilton a winner in the comedy-musical category could also apply to creator and star Lin-Manuel Miranda, this is the one comedy-musical category with an actual juggernaut, in the form of Sacha Baron Cohen. He’d be the first actor to ever win in this category twice for playing the same character—but who can deny him a reward, for his public service in delegitimizing Rudy Giuliani if nothing else? —KR
Best Actress, Motion Picture, Comedy
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Kate Hudson, Music
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
A matching set of Golden Globes for the father and daughter at the center of the Borat sequel would be—say it with us—very nice. And though you really never know if the Globes will suddenly decide to embrace a veteran they love, like Michelle Pfeiffer, none of the other nominees are in films with remotely the same level of attention. With her Oscar nomination still looking like something of a long shot, this should be a nice star-is-born moment for Bakalova. —KR
Best Supporting Actor, Motion Picture
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Jared Leto, The Little Things
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami…
Baron Cohen is a strong contender here. But we think he’s more likely to win in the best-actor-in-a-musical-or-comedy category, for Borat. Which leaves Daniel Kaluuya as the distinct front-runner for his towering portrayal of Black Panthers leader Fred Hampton. Whether or not Kaluuya’s presence in supporting is category fraud, he gives one of the performances of the season in his film, yet another sterling turn from an exciting young actor—who led Get Out, a movie that changed horror films, and featured in Black Panther, a movie that changed superhero films. It’s likely Kaluuya’s moment. —RL
Best Supporting Actress, Motion Picture
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Helena Zengel, News of the World