The persuadables—the Lean Trump and Mixed Feelings segments—were more inclined to say the protests were “somewhat right,” describing them using hazier terms like “equality” and “change.” But at the same time, they expressed unease with rioting, looting, and property destruction. So when the demonstrations became almost completely nonviolent and penetrated even the smallest American towns, public opinion came their way—even among soft Trump supporters. “Even among voters who say they will probably vote for Trump, there are still more than 40% of people who talk about this as being a moment about racial equality,” said Tovah Paglaro, Avalanche’s cofounder and COO. “So when you’re talking about what’s going on with those persuadable voters, and figuring out spaces where they’re more aligned with Biden, for them this moment is about racial equality. And 20% of them also cite that it’s time to create change. That’s a surprisingly large percentage of soft Trump supporters saying something’s got to happen here. They’re saying, ‘I don’t like rioting and looting and I’m not crazy about the tactics, but I do acknowledge that there’s a problem with racial equality.’ It connects to police brutality and a need for change.”
Beyond the presidential race, the Avalanche survey picked up a treasure trove of detail about the anti-racism moment. As seen in other national polls, the intensity of feeling was stronger among Black Americans, who were more likely to talk about the protests in the context of racial justice and reforming police departments, compared to white Americans and undecided voters, who responded with more abstract terms like “equality” or “opportunity.” “When Black respondents talk about what’s happening right now, their response is twice as likely to be about racism or racial justice as it is about equality generally and good treatment,” Paglaro said. “Fear,” “anger,” and “bad” were the terms most used to describe police among Black respondents, who talked about personal experiences with bias and excessive force. White respondents, meanwhile, were more likely to use terms like “good,” “safe,” and “proud” when referring to their local police. Despite those differences, 75% of Americans in the survey favored some kind of policing reform, with respondents expressing a desire for better officer training, increased diversity, and more police accountability. Among both Black and white respondents, there was almost no support for fully defunding police departments, an idea that turned off the persuadable voter segments. There was even less support for hiring more police and raising officer pay.
But according to Prull, the biggest story of early June was the widespread support that rapidly emerged in favor of the protesters, people of all races and ages, who took to the streets to make a statement about racism in America. The protesters, he said, were winning a values argument with Americans of all races, backgrounds, and political persuasions at the very moment President Trump was trying to paint them as an angry and radical minority. “Trump could not be more on the wrong side of this issue for anyone except for a very isolated group of his base, and that’s what he’s stuck with,” Prull said. “He’s taking a line of messaging that works for 34% of his base in our survey. It’s not even that big of a part of his base. He’s really alienating folks. There’s a compelling argument here that Trump’s negatives can be driven up even further among some of these Lean Trump folks, based on his behavior and relationship with the protests,” Prull said, suggesting that NeverTrump groups like the Lincoln Project and Republican Voters Against Trump could take up that work.
Yet Trump seems to be doing the work on his own in recent days, by dispatching federal troops to cities like Portland, Chicago, and even Albuquerque to tangle with protesters who, for the most part, have been behaving peacefully for more than a month. As with Lafayette Square, Trump is perversely creating mayhem in the name of law and order, clinging to the apple-pie idea that the “silent majority” of 1968 is still hiding out somewhere. The country will “go to hell” if Biden wins, Trump said this week, as if people don’t understand that he’s the one presiding over the chaos. But if Avalanche’s research is correct, the silent majority of 2020 is firmly on the side of Biden when it comes to issues of race and justice, and its members walked out of Trump’s community theater Richard Nixon impression many weeks ago.
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