Even as the White House examines data showing that a couple additional weeks of social distancing could prevent thousands of new cases, Donald Trump is prepared to send his “warriors,” the American people, out to battle the so-called invisible enemy. The president, while pushing for a return to a state of normalcy soon, seemingly acknowledged the probability that many more Americans will die as a result—on top of the current 75,000 deaths and 1.2 million cases. “Will some people be affected badly? Yes,” said Trump during his mask-less visit to an Arizona Honeywell factory on Tuesday. “But we have to get our country open, and we have to get it open soon.” Asked the following day if he believes Americans will simply have to tolerate more deaths, Trump replied, “Hopefully it won’t be the case, but it may very well be the case…We have to be warriors.”
Some estimates found that if coronavirus deaths in the U.S. continue at their current pace, the toll could reach 100,000 by late May. And in the coming months, if the president pushes the country to reopen by mid-May, additional explosions in coronavirus cases could occur across the country, according to a research model by the PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. The study, which the White House coronavirus task force is closely reviewing, per the Daily Beast, found that urban and rural counties alike would experience far fewer daily case increases if they aim to reopen on June 1, instead of two weeks sooner. However, coronavirus could affect each locality differently, meaning every county’s ideal reopening plan could look different, noted PolicyLab’s director, Dr. David Rubin. “There’s going to be transmission if people stop sheltering in place,” he told the Daily Beast. “It’s not that all [counties] are safe to reopen. Every area is extremely sensitive to the amount of distancing you’re doing. The more cautious you are the better.”
Some of the study’s predictions suggest that Trump’s renewed plan to start safely “OPENING UP OUR COUNTRY AGAIN” may be impossible if attempted in the very near future. In a model of what such a reopening could look like in the Los Angeles area, PolicyLab found that if the county enacts 33% fewer social-distancing measures on May 15, bringing things “roughly halfway back to normal,” coronavirus case numbers would shoot up from 471 per day to 1,467 by August 1. If the Chicago area were to follow the same timeline at the same level of reduced social distancing, cases in Cook County would skyrocket from 626 every day to 2,494.
The president appears to be aware of this likelihood, as his recent messaging has been aimed at preparing Americans for such a reality. “I’m viewing our great citizens of this country, to a certain extent and to a large extent, as warriors,” he said during a Tuesday discussion with Arizona’s Republican governor Doug Ducey. “They’re warriors. We can’t keep our country closed.” However, public opinion polls show that most Americans are opposed to aggressive reopening plans and prefer a more cautious approach. Two-thirds of respondents in a new Washington Post–University of Maryland poll expressed opposition to retail stores returning to business as usual, 74% said restaurants should not reopen their dine-in areas yet, and roughly eight in 10 felt the same way about movie theaters and gyms. Not that facts have stopped the president from justifying his push by citing the supposed views of the “people.” “The country won’t stand for it,” Trump said of business closures yesterday. “It’s not sustainable.”